Almost forty years ago, in the 70s, a young college student named Doyne Farmer, defeated “home” playing roulette in a casino in Nevada, and this is not by luck or by chance, but because then Farmer already possessed sufficient knowledge in math and computers to perform calculations that ultimately would grant victory.
At that time, however, Farmer refused to reveal his secret, until now following the publication of an article in which two colleagues say just a laptop and even a smartphone to reverse the odds in Roulette favor the player.
According to Michael Small and Michael Tse-from the universities of Western Australia in Perth and the Polytechnic of Hong Kong, respectively, the key to victory is to record the moment the ball and the spinning wheel go through a point made in advance . This model divides the game in two: on one hand, what happens when the ball rolls along the circumference of the wheel and then falls (which is highly predictable) and, secondly, what happens after the ball starts jumping (which is chaotic and unpredictable). From the first aspect, Small and Tse could calculate where the ball will start about his erratic jumps and, therefore, in that part of roulette is more likely to stop.
The researchers used a device similar to Farmer count, hitting in which half of the roulette ball would fall in 13 of 22 events; Moreover, in 3 attempts model accurately predicted the winning square. With this, the odds increased from 2.7% in favor of the house, 18% favor the player (in European style roulette). These tests were performed 700 other times using an automated recording.
According to Farmer, colleagues calculations differ from theirs in that they assume that the main force that stops the movement of the ball is friction at roulette, although he says the real culprit is air resistance.
Anyway, Small thinks the casino owners know this multitude of negligible factors that determine victory or defeat someone, the player or the house. Even Holger Dullin expert mechanics and chaos theory at the University of Sydney, thinks gambling houses could prevent embezzlement by closing bets before, in the case of roulette, the ball has rotated sufficiently to make the minimum estimates that the case requires.
Yet Perth researcher says he knows of people besides trying this trick has worked.